Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.366929 0.418608 0.474722 0.540147 0.614309 0.695739 0.791911
2025-08-31 0.287457 0.354897 0.433810 0.532857 0.653764 0.796472 0.977645
2025-09-07 0.239543 0.317774 0.415737 0.547174 0.718684 0.934677 1.227181
2025-09-14 0.190289 0.270115 0.376654 0.528812 0.740115 1.022747 1.429117
2025-09-21 0.156585 0.236852 0.350568 0.522728 0.776063 1.134378 1.678890
2025-09-28 0.129248 0.207594 0.325007 0.512785 0.804503 1.239193 1.934718
2025-10-05 0.113931 0.193494 0.319116 0.530479 0.875687 1.415349 2.320667
2025-10-12 0.097825 0.175232 0.303679 0.530474 0.918880 1.554220 2.668676
2025-10-19 0.085792 0.161616 0.293477 0.537116 0.973366 1.717892 3.079467
2025-10-26 0.076891 0.151918 0.288299 0.551304 1.042351 1.914397 3.572609
2025-11-02 0.065196 0.134961 0.267382 0.533628 1.051373 2.006995 3.894081
2025-11-09 0.054394 0.117809 0.243324 0.506067 1.037435 2.055269 4.139431
2025-11-16 0.046933 0.106402 0.229179 0.496828 1.059851 2.179135 4.555639
2025-11-23 0.040491 0.095991 0.215390 0.486164 1.077970 2.297622 4.979716
2025-11-30 0.036692 0.090750 0.211677 0.496353 1.141411 2.516663 5.642358
2025-12-07 0.031313 0.080830 0.196038 0.477629 1.139222 2.598418 6.026058
2025-12-14 0.027509 0.073983 0.186250 0.470677 1.162393 2.738077 6.557063
2025-12-21 0.024069 0.067380 0.175917 0.460679 1.176840 2.860141 7.065668
2025-12-28 0.022412 0.065118 0.175836 0.475861 1.254137 3.136981 7.974170
2026-01-04 0.020181 0.060858 0.169962 0.475307 1.292199 3.326002 8.697900
2026-01-11 0.018477 0.057757 0.166616 0.480875 1.346869 3.563014 9.573849
2026-01-18 0.017221 0.055725 0.165837 0.493318 1.421698 3.860767 10.645947
2026-01-25 0.015086 0.050595 0.155502 0.477246 1.416435 3.951618 11.190365